Awesomely Bad Wax Packs

I know, I know, you are thinking Xavier Nady? Really? The answer is yes. If you have followed his career over the past few seasons, you know what I am talking about. Sure he has been on three teams so far in his career, but he is a pure hitter. No he’s never going to hit over 35 homers, but what you are going to get is a consistent 0.300/25/80 guy if you just let him playe everyday. Plus his first name starts with an X how cool is that?

Let’s take a snapshot of his career. He was drafted by the Padres in the 2nd round of the 2000 draft from the University of California. He started grinding out his minor league career in Lake Elsinore of the California league in 2001 where he went 0.302/26/100, which should have made him rocket through the Padres system. So midway through 2002 he was sent right up to AAA Portland Beavers where he hit a combined 0.281/23/80. So far two minor league seasons, two nice seasons. In 2003 he was promoted to the Padres midway through the season and ended up with a 0.267/9/39 rookie season with 371 at bats. In 2004 he spent most of his season in Portland (AAA) where he went 0.333/22/70. So the Padres take a gamble in 2005 and allow him to start. Unfortunately he puts up a 0.261/13/43 in just over 300 at bats, never really establishing himself as a threat.

In 2006 he was traded to the Mets for Mike Cameron (another undervalued king). But he was never a starting kind of player for them either and midway through the season he was unloaded for Roberto Hernandez and Oliver Perez. Finally in Pittsburgh he had a home where he could start everyday. In 2006 he went 0.280/17/63. In 2007 he went 0.278/20/72. Now in 2008 he is surrounded by a lot of talent (Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Doumit). His number represent that he is being pitched to a lot. In 2008 through 7/4/08 he has hit 0.326/12/53, meaning that with a full season he might be able to go 0.300/25/100, which would be tremendous for a guy that had to work so hard to get where he is today.

His rookie cards are from 2000 and 2001 and you can find them on eBay for anywhere from $0.25 - $0.50. As far as his relic cards, none should cost more than $1. For his autograph cards, it might run you as high as $4 for the extremely limited edition stuff, but for $1.50-$2.50 you should be able to get any of them. I don’t think for investment purposes this would be good, but to own an autograph of a consistent 0.300/20/80 guy then why not?

Some of his autograph cards:

Name: Jason Bay

Position: OF

Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

Age: 29

Best Season: 2005 when he went 0.306/32/101/21 which was good for 12th in MVP voting.

Set it’s from: 2004 Topps Series 2

How obtained: eBay of course (I can’t beat 1:355 odds).

Why this Card?: Everyone knows me as a die hard Yankee fan and although that is indeed true, I have to have a NL team to root for as well and unbeknownst to a lot of people, I am indeed a Pittsburgh Pirates fan.  The Pirates always seem to find solid outfielders from the days of Barry Bonds, to Brian Giles, and now Jason Bay.  I’ve followed Bay since he was traded to the Pirates along with Oliver Perez for Brian Giles.  I knew him to be a possible 20/20 guy.  Giles was about to leave his prime years so I thought it could work out well.  He has had some pretty great seasons since then.  Hopefully he can continue to be a very productive player as he has already past the apex of his prime years himself.  I still remain a fan and have several relic and autographed cards of him.  This one though is probably my favorite.

But What About the Set?: This was from the basic Topps set of 2004, series 2.  The boxes for this one ran pretty low, around the $40-$50 mark.  You were not guaranteed any relics or autographs per box.  Actually the odds of hitting this autograph was 1:355.  You can now get those boxes on ebay for about $25, which isn’t bad since you should be able to clear about 90% of the set with 360 cards per box, 375 cards in the set. Overall I think this is a great buy for set builders but if you want relics and autographs, this is the wrong box for you.

Beckett’s Value: $10.00

eBay Value: $0.99

Will it ever be worth more?: No but that’s OK, I like the card so much that it’s worth a lot to me.

One of the toughest things to do as a card collector is predicting who will be good and who will not make it.  Players may have incredible seasons, but fail to have what it takes to get into the big leagues.  Thousands of rookie cards come out every single year and it seems like the prices are set at random.  In reality, is a Fernando Martinez card worth $100? Who knows, so what buy high, when you can use my guide to find some roughs on the diamond.

The first player I’d like to focus on is Sean Doolittle.  He was drafted as the 41st overall pick in 2007.  He was a Junior at the University of Virgina (same school as Ryan Zimmerman).  He was also a member of a very good 2006 Team USA (the year with David Price and Pedro Alvarez). Currently he plays for Class A Stockton in the Oakland A’s farm. Here was his 2007 Draft Report from Minor League baseball’s website:

As you can see from his report, the main concern from him was that he was a first baseman and he might not show power of the typical first baseman.  That’s the difference between a first rounder and  a second rounder I guess.  Well the A’s took a chance on him and hoped he would develop into a power hitting first baseman and from the look of this season they are not disappointed.

2007 stats: 0.243/4/33 in 239 at bats.

2008 stats (through 7/3): 0.314/18/58 in 312 at bats.  His big problem is the strikeouts (91).

Well I guess the power and average are there for your typical first baseman, but he needs to learn the strike zone better.  His 29% strike out percentage is pretty bad. He still has quite a way to go, but with Daric Barton having trouble in the majors, the A’s are going to be forced to take a look at their minor league first basemen and Doolittle could be in the mix within the next two years. My projected ETA would be 2010.

I’ve seen his autographs go anywhere from $0.99 to about $4.00, but if you be patient you could find some real deals.  I think he is worth a flyer, the real test will be when the A’s move him to Midland (AA) and see whether he can hit that level of pitching.  The California League is a notoriously offensive league, so let’s see what he can do in the Texas League (more of a balanced league).

This review will be extremely short.  I am going through the packs now before I review them to separate the doubles from the singles.  Unfortunately, this one only has one card I need for the set.  So it’s one review and 16 links to previous reviews.  I didn’t get a chance to scan the card, mainly because I didn’t think his career merited it.  Anyways, I may not get a chance to post tomorrow and I don’t know just how busy I will be here today, so I want to wish everyone a happy and safe 4th of July weekend.  If you live in proximity to real fireworks, be ultra safe.  Now on to the one card review . . .

1. Mark Gubicza

Position: P

Team: Royals

Card Number: 326

Age: 24

1987 Stats: 13-18/3.98/1.45

Awards: None

Player Notes: Although he was one of my favorite pitchers growing up, I know he was not an ace.  He was on a pretty solid staff in 1987, with the likes of Saberhagen, Liebrandt, Bud Black, not to mention the Quis in relief.  I would say overall not a bad pitcher, but nothing more than a 0.500 guy.

Fun Facts: Mark’s father, Anthony, pitched in the White Sox chain.  He lists his hobbies as music, actually the card says his hobby is being music, but i think it’s a typo, it’s not like someone wants to be a note.

2. Dann Bilardello - Previously reviewed in pack 33.

3. John Tudor - Previously reviewed in pack 33.

4. Chris Codiroli - Previously reviewed in pack 33.

5. Roger McDowell - Previously reviewed in pack 31.

6. Ken Dixon -Previously reviewed in pack 31.

7. Curt Wilkerson -Previously reviewed in pack 31.

8. Dale Murphy -Previously reviewed in pack 31.

9. LaMarr Hoyt - Previously reviewed in pack 8.

10. Mike Aldrete - Previously reviewed in pack 9.

11. Joaquin Andujar - Previously reviewed in pack 9.

12. Greg Minton - Previously reviewed in pack 9.

13. Andy Alanson - Previously reviewed in pack 9.

14. Mark Langston - Previously reviewed in pack 9.

15. Dave Parker - Previously reviewed in pack 9.

16. Lou Whitaker - Previously reviewed in pack 9.

17. Bob Ojeda - Previously reviewed in pack 9.

This is a great display of how Topps in 1987 loved to put certain cards in runs.  The only card that didn’t fit in a run was the LaMarr Hoyt card.  The only saving grace of this sad pack is the Dale Murphy card, but still it’s almost a decade into his career at that point.  So I am going to give this pack the dreaded 0.5 star rating. Just because it just didn’t bring anything to the table.  This went a lot faster than I expected, look for another post at somepoint today.

Name: Mark Prior

Position: P - Starter

Team: San Diego Padres (Pictured with the Cubs)

Age: 27

Best Season: 2003 when he went 18-6/2.43/1.10 3rd in Cy Young voting and 9th in MVP voting.

Set it’s from: 2003 Fleer Double Header

Why this Card?: When Mark was drafted second overall in 2001, I got to see him pitch in college and what an arm this guy had. I followed his career in the minors and even got a through the mail autograph from him when he was in AA in western Tennessee. When he finally broke into the majors, I made sure to try and watch every game he pitched in. For the first two years of his career, he was one of the most electric pitchers in baseball. But the Cubs pitching curse struck him down in 2004. Although he had good stuff, it just wasn’t the same as 2003. Now he sits as a Padre and hasn’t pitched in over 2 years. It is really sad to see his fame from the top. Anyways I just wanted a jersey card of him and this one looked pretty cool.

But What About the Set?: This was one of those one hit wonders.  Boxes ran about $70 although you can find them on eBay now for about $30.  You get 20 packs with 8 cards each and 2 flip cards (not sure what those were).  You are guaranteed to get two autographs or game used cards.  So really for that kind of money it’s not bad, but you know none of those autos or game used were going to be worth anything.  The best one I saw on ebay was the Barry Bonds and Greg Maddux jerseys and the Griffey Jr. autograph.  Overall getting it now for around $30 the box is a good deal, but in it’s day it was a waste of money.

Beckett’s Value: $8.00

eBay Value: $0.99

Ever going up in value: Not when he’s not pitched in 2 years.  but in the end I would say not a chance.

The first thing you should do after reading this sentence is head over to eBay and see what his autographed cards are going for.  When you think of second basemen, you don’t normally think about Kinsler.  In fact, he may not even be on your top 5 list of second basemen.  But he should be, currently on Yahoo he is ranked 2nd.  His season stats are 0.321/13/50/20, oh and by the way it’s just the All Star break.

He was never really a hot prospect, he was supposed to be a solid contact hitter with some speed and very good defensively.  What the last few season have shown us is his ability to learn.  He broke into the league at just 24 years old in 2006 and went 0.286/14/55/11. His ability really just came out of nowhere, he was actually a 17th round pick.  He showed no power his first season in A ball (2002), but he definitely could hit for average so they moved him up to AA.  Well in 2004 he made the leap to prolific hitter as he took AA and AAA pitching for 0.345/20/99/23. In 2005 he played a full year in AAA and went 0.274/23/94/19.  He is definitely capable of a 0.300/20/100/20 season, the question is can those power and steal numbers jump to 30/30 and beyond?

Probably not beyond but 30/30 is a possibility.  His strongest attribute is his ability to steal bases without being caught.  This year he is 20 for 21, last year he was 23 for 25.  He just doesn;t get caught.  The fact that he just entered his prime years should be a scary thought for AL West pitchers.  Here is a guy with 25 homer potential who can steal at will on you.  Best of all, for what ever reason, his autographed cards are still cheap.  A quick look at eBay and you can see that they are running between $2 and $5.  Which is impressive given his upside.  Chase Utley was in this situation 2 years ago. He had back to back good seasons, then he just took off offensively.

I think you might be looking at the same thing, but throw in some speed and an uncanny ability to sneak past catcher’s throws.  This year I expect him to be in the 0.295/25/90/32 region.  But he is such a good learner when it comes to evaluate pitching that you can expect an even better year next year.  I have already been able to purchase two of his autographed cards for under $2.  It’s very possible you just have to be patient and use an aution sniping service like Gixen.

Here are a few of his signed cards:

Like I said, he is an under the radar kind of guy right now, but he won’t be for long, so get him while you can. Not worth more than $5 right now, but if you can get some limited edition auotgraphs for $4 or less, I would do it.

The first box is done and the final tally was 544 non doubles. Meaning there was 248 cards not gotten and a double rate of right around 11%. No bad at all! My only notes that I have about the last box was that there wasn’t a Bonds or Bo rookie card. I’ve bought so many boxes of this product when I was younger and I have 13 Bonds rookies. I know that as far as the production runs go there should be a Bonds or Jackson in about every box. We are talking about 100,000 cards + per player. They don’t call this the worthless era for nothing folks. So again, I was pretty surprised that I didn;t get one of the two. Other than that I really can’t complain about that first box, there was a point where I opened like 15 straight packs without a double. Now on to pack 37.

1. Jim Deschaies - Record Breaker

Position: P

Team: Astros

Card Number: 2

Age: 27

Record Broken: Most consecutive strikeouts to start a game (8). This was actually the second record broken that year with respect to this catagory as Joe Cowley struck out 7 at the end of May to originally set it.

2. Giants Leaders

Offensive Leaders: Robby Thompson, Candy Maldonado

Pitching Leaders: Mike Krukow and Mark Davis

Card Number: 231

3. Brian Dayett - Final Year

Position: OF

Team: Cubs

Card Number: 369

Age: 30

1987 Stats: 0.277/5/25

Awards: None

Player Notes: Just never really became the OF they envisioned when they drafted him. He had a semi decent season in 1987 but it wasn’t enough to keep him in the pros.

Fun Facts: He was selected as the Southern League’s MVP at Nashville in 1982 and was named to the All Star team.

4. Tony Gwynn - NL All Star

Position: OF

Team: Padres

Card Number: 599

Age: 27

Stat on the back of his card: Batting Average, which believe it or not he was 3rd behind Galaraga and Steve Sax. In 1986 he broke an NL record with5 stolen bases in one game.

5. Barry Bonds

Position: OF

Team: Pirates

Card Number: 320

Age: 22

1987 Stats: 0.261/25/59/32

Awards: None

Player Notes: Hard to believe at just 22 years old he was a 20/20 guy. People tend to forget how fast he was when he hadn’t swelled up with ‘roids. Nice to find the premier card in the set in the first pack!

Fun Facts: He majored in Criminal Justice at ASU. His father Bobby played in the majors from 1968-1981.

6. Carney Lansford

Position: 3B

Team: A’s

Card Number: 678

Age: 30

1987 Stats: 0.289/19/76/27

Awards: None

Player Notes: I never understand why this guy didn’t get more recognition. He was a solid player for more than a decade. I always had him on my fantasy team and he never disappointed.

Fun Facts: He is a direct descendant of Sir Francis Drake, the 16th century British admiral.

7. Darnell Coles

Position: 3B

Team: Tigers (traded to the Pirates mid season)

Card Number: 411

Age: 25

1987 Stats: 0.201/10/35

Awards: None

Player Notes: Coles was never really a starter on any team he played on (which was quite a few). He was a solid backup though and I guess that’s why he hung around the league for 14 seasons (yep you read that right!)

Fun Facts: He was a 4 sport letterman and 3 time baseball MVP in high school.

8. Storm Davis

Position: P

Team: Orioles (started the season with the Padres and was traded mid season to the A’s)

Card Number: 349

Age: 25

1987 Stats: 3-8/5.23/1.56 ouch and he made it another decade in this league?

Awards: None

Player Notes: He pitched pretty well for the A’s, unfortunately for him it’s the only place in his 13 year career where he pitched well.

Fun Facts: His nickname came from a character in a book his mother read while pregnant.

9. Scott Bradley

Position: C/OF

Team: Mariners

Card Number: 376

Age: 27

1987 Stats: 0.278/5/43

Awards: None

Player Notes: Scott was a brief starter in his career but mostly known for his back up duties in Seattle. Not really an any tool player to be honest.

Fun Facts: He played for the USA National Team. His brother Bob is a soccer coach at Princeton University.

10. Rick Aguilera - 103 - Double found in pack 3.

11. Luis Quinones - 362- Double found in pack 3.

12. Mike Easler - 135- Double found in pack 3.

13. Jim Leyland - 93- Double found in pack 3.

14. Vance Law - 127- Double found in pack 3.

15. Dennis Leonard - 38- Double found in pack 3.

16. Marvell Wynne - 37- Double found in pack 8.

17.Willie Upshaw - 245- Double found in pack 3.

I got the Bonds card right off the bad in the first pack. Also picked up 9 more cards for the set, so that’s not to shabby either. The other players in the pack were mostly stiffs (except Gwynn and Lansford). But that Bonds elevates the pack to 5.0 star status. Even with the steroids, how can I give it any other rating. Don’t forget about the logo and banner contest. Only two entries so far (no banner entries)! Email me your entries at chemgod1000@yahoo.com.

Upon checking my email last night I stumbled across the 2nd entry for the logo contest!  This one is from Scott.  The gloves have been dropped and this is now officially on.  Here is Scott’s interpretation of the logo for this site:

It’s a fun take on the 80’s Topps wrapper (as if you didn’t know that).  I like it just as much as the rookie cup from yesterday.  Still no banners as of yet but the contest goes on for another 2 weeks so I’m not too worried.

In other news, this blog was mentioned in NJ.com, memories of Morris Plains, for me that is exciting being I grew up in NJ (Red Bank). So when I get a shout out from NJ.com it puts a smile on my face.  Yesterday the all time high of 372 hits was achieved, so for that I want to thank all of my readers.  I do try and make the site interesting, giving you a chance to read daily takes on bargain products.  I’m glad there are so many people out there like me, just looking to add to their collections without breaking the bank.

I have some new columns I am going to introduce over the next few weeks and we’ll see how they will take off.  I’ve gotten some great feedback about the Undervalued Wax columns which will continue.  I am trying to diversify the content on the site but it will continue to focus on cheap cards, boxes and sets.  Also as you know I am a bit of an autograph hound.  If you know of any free signings, please let me know so I can put it on here.  I found out about the Jim Rice signing about 5 hours before it happened, I’d like to be able to let people know days or weeks in advance.  Everyone likes a free autograph.

So that’s it for now, but check back later today as I will have an Operation Topps post as well as an Undervalued Wax column.  Have a great week for all of you who are lucky enough to have the week off.  I’ll be sweating it at work for the next few days.  I do however had the weekend off, maybe I’ll have some good stuff to post then.

Player’s Name: Victor Martinez

Position: C

Team: Cleveland Indians

Age: 29

Best Season: 2007 - 0.301/25/114 - 7th in MVP Voting

Set Card is From: 2006 Upper Deck Ovation

Beckett Card Value: $8.00

eBay Card Value: $0.99

Why this card?: Well the card was acquired at the end of last season.  That was one of the best seasons he has ever had.  Of course I figured that since he was in the middle of his prime he would continue belting the ball all over Jacob’s field.  Well this has been one of the most perplexing seasons I can remember for an individual home run hitter to just lose his power.  So far this season he is hitting 0.278/0/21 and he has started almost 60 games.  To me it seems so ridiculous that any one player could just get that cold.  you would figure just by sheer luck he would hit one or two.  This reminds me a lot of Helton’s power outage after the 2004 season, but at least he hit homers.  Very strange indeed.

Was the original wax box worth it?: Well, now they will run you about 40 bucks a box for hobby wax.  In it you get 18, 5 card packs (90 total cards).  You are guaranteed 2 autograph or memorabilia cards.  The base set is 84 veterans and 42 rookies.  So it’s impossible to make a base set from one box (would probably take 3 or more).  So to find a card like this as one of your two guaranteed hits is a bit of a let down.  I’m not saying it’s a bad hit, but if you are going to shell out $70 per box (the price it was when new), you probably don’t want to find a Victor Martinez game used in there. Even in 2006 this wasn’t that great a hit.
Will it ever be worth more?: In my opinion no, not even if he gets out of his home run - less funk.  He’s just an average catcher.

I have had a few emails regarding this.  The first logo has come in and I like it! I’ll keep the contest open for a couple more weeks (since there is a holiday). Also don’t forget I need a banner as well!  Remember one autographed card, one memorabilia card, and some bad wax to the winners of the logo and banner contests.

This one is from Dan:

Thanks for your input Dan!  Looks great.  Just keep them going and email your entries to chemgod1000@yahoo.com.