I don’t know why the Tampa Bay Rays have so much trouble with their picks in the draft.  Admittedly David Price was a home run and so was Evan Longoria, however, what were they thinking when they took Tim Beckham?  Beckham wasn’t even the best high school prospect.  This pick was money driven pure and simple.

Sure he had some great high school numbers.  He was even considered a five tool player along the lines of the Upton brothers.  Unfortunately it just doesn’t look like he is going to develop into that kind of player.  There were so many players the Rays could have had.  Most notably, Buster Posey, Pedro Alverez and Eric Hosmer.  Two of those guys are already in the majors and the other is probably one of the best prospects in the minors right now.

I am thinking that Beckham will develop into a 0.270/10/60/20 hitter.  A very far cry for what a number one overall  pick should produce.  If I were a Rays fan I would be pissed off.  I would have thought he would be in AA by now, but he is having such a big problem  with single A hitting, I can’t see him advancing until next year.  The Rays are hoping that he will advance with age, but I just don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, his autographs were once fetching $30 – $40 as recent as last season.  Now the card pictured below is barely pulling in $5.  Collectors aren’t going to wait for Tim to progress.  You could have most of his autographed cards for between $5 – $10.  Is it a buy? Probably not, I just don’t see him becoming a force in the minors, let alone the majors.  Am  I alone here?  Am I off base?  What do you think he will become?

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4 responses »

  1. This is about a Rays prospect so I’ll take the bait.

    I don’t have a problem with the pick so much as Beckham is a perfect example of why you can’t count on draft picks/minor leaguers/prospects. If there’s one thing that drives me nuts it’s the number of stats-inclined guys out there who claim over and over that the Rays should let CC walk and take the compensatory draft picks. Not that long ago I remember guys talking about how we could dangle Bartlett and Brignac as trade bait and just bring up Becks. Seriously.

    On the one hand I understand that a “stocked” farm system is always a plus. On the other, there are almost an infinite number of “mega-prospects” who didn’t pan out. Arguing hypothetical MLB stats based on a guy’s production in the minors is just flat out nuts.

  2. Jeremy says:

    Actually, the Rays have done very well with their picks in the draft. Since they became a team in 1998, they have drafted Josh Hamilton, Rocco Baldelli, Dewon Brazelton, BJ Upton, Delmon Young, Jeff Niemann, Wade Townsend, Evan Longoria, David Price, Tim Beckham, LeVon Washington, and Josh Sale with their first picks in the draft. Not too bad, I say. Hamilton went on to stardom (although with another team), Baldelli played well when he wasn’t hurt, Upton has been a big part of the Rays success, Delmon Young shows promise, Neimann is a key member of the Rays rotation, and Longoria and Price are the teams 2 biggest stars. The only busts have been Brazelton and Townsend. Beckham could make a 3rd bust, but there’s still time to turn it around. The Rays have also made some good selections in lower rounds, like Carl Crawford, Jonny Gomes, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Andy Sonnanstine, and Matt Diaz.

  3. John Bateman says:

    He is stiill young – give him some more time

  4. Scott says:

    I thought the same thing about Justin Upton and he turned out fine, so obviously I’m no perfect judge of talent. But he certainly does seem to be somewhat of a bust.

    I disagree that he was a “money” pick, though. He was widely hailed as the best HS player in the nation, by BA and other publications, prior to the 2008 draft. The difference between what the Rays paid him and what the Bucs paid Pedro Alvarez and what the Royals paid Eric Hosmer was negligible. In hindsight, they probably should have taken either Hosmer or Buster Posey (both guys with Florida connections, I might add), but at the time Beckham was a sound pick. Just like Brien Taylor was the best pick for the Yankees when he was taken.

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